Andry Rajoelina gives up


Andry Rajoelina finally made his decision: He will not be candidate for the presidential elections scheduled on May 08th, 2013.

Well I bet most of you already knew it. That was the buzz of yesterday evening. He made an official live TV statement yesterday at 08.00pm Mdg time from the presidential palace in Ambotsirohitra. After several months of suspense, he finally showed up his cards…

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His decision closed all the political bets that started with the Ravalomanana’s declaration not to run for presidency (the so basic and common talk about: neither Ravalomanana nor Rajoelina, either Ravalomanana or Rajoelina, Ravalomanana and Rajoelina, …).

International community (IC)

It is sure that the IC has played a key role on Rajoelina’s decision. Despite all the theoritical speeches over Malagasy sovereignty, Madagascar, especially on its current situation, can not afford  (yet) to get rid off IC. I am not an anti-nationalist but I am sincerely tired of all these so empty political speeches which try to call up for national pride … Remember, this is what Andry Rajoelina did when he wanted to rally all Antananarivo people against Ravalomanana: Daewoo, South African mercenaries, … The IC’s stand has always been clear: they follow SADC’s resolutions which wanted both leaders to sit on the sidelines for 2013.

Can we really trust Andry Rajoelina?

Are we really sure at 100% that he will sit and admire the landscape? Even if he made an official declaration to the nation, to all Malagasy people, what guarantee do we have that he will keep his words? It is not the first time that he denied his own signature and he knows very well that it is easy to do so just by claiming national interest. I don’t really feel confortable when discovering that he(Andry Rajoelina) already agreed not to be candidate for the presidential elections on … January 10th, 2013. Why did he fancy all this suspense though he already gave his words? Maybe he wanted to insist on a … magical last minute support from a powerful country … Will he do a last minute about-face? This is the $ 1,000 question.

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Malagasy duel in Seychelles


It’s now 03.13am Madagascar time and I’m still looking for any piece of information about the “face to face” meeting between Andry RAJOELINA and Marc RAVALOMANANA in DesRoches island ( a private island – 234km away from Mahe, capital of Seychelles) …

Face to face

This is the firt time in the Madagascar crisis negotiating history that the SADC imposed (or succeeded to impose?) a real face to face with just the two main opponents:

– Andry RAJOELINA: the president of a transition which is not yet internationally recognized mainly because they (the transition and him) came from a military backed coup. He and his circle of influence (including the Army) rule the country with an iron fist.

– Marc RAVALOMANANA: the last legal president of Madagascar who was deposed by Andry RAJOELINA and mutineers on March 17th, 2009. He now lives in exile in South Africa and masterminds his opposition movement from there. He is believed to have some private business interests in some African countries (to be confirmed).

What they only have in common is their main goal: to get the power – Both want to win the next presidential elections.

As far as I understand the last SADC’s ultimatum, Andry RAJOELINA and Marc RAVALOMANANA have until July 31st to reach a common agreement. This meet-up is kind of extraordinary because both leaders will be on their owns, SADC has imposed that no delegation, no counsel, no wife, no lawyer, … should be present during the face to face meeting. The time where they have to tell what they really think about each other, has finally come … thank you SADC!

I’m personally interested to see what the former DJ (Andry RAJOELINA -this is not from me, this is from international medias) would be able to deliver without his griots. Does he really have a personnality (or a brain?) without the advices of French ambassadors / Quai d’Orsay special envoys, Norbert Lala RATSIRAHOANANA (Andry RAJOELINA’s political and legal counsellor), Annick RAJAONA (in charge of international liasions) and any other unsavoury individual? Will he do like in Maputo, Mozambic during the Maputo summit which run from August 05th, 2009 to August 09th, 2009, jointly organized by the AU, the UN, the SADC and the OIF? He exasperated everybody by leaving the negotiation room every time when an important decision has to be made … just because he has to ask the opinions of his counsellors. The SADC should not allow that to happen again!

Outcome?

The entire country is now holding its breath until a “consensual and inclusive” (lol) resolution comes up. The undeniable truth is that the life of millions of Malagasy people (including myself) will be affected by their agreement … above all the implementation of such agreement.

There were many agreements which have been signed but none of theme have been fully and duly respected by opponent parties. Why do you think that this “Desroches resolution” will be an exception?